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Received:November 17, 2016 Revised:January 04, 2017
Received:November 17, 2016 Revised:January 04, 2017
中文摘要: 准确的预测航线的客流量，对于航空企业制定航线销售政策有着重要的作用.针对民航客流量预测具有诸多不确定性和数据不足的特点，在选取某航空公司近六年三亚-北京往返航线数据的基础上，提出以回归分析、灰色预测方法对该航线2016年的客流量进行分析预测.经实证分析，结果表明:灰色预测方法对航线客流量的预测的精确度较高，对航空公司预估客流量和制订销售政策有直接的指导意义.
Abstract:The accurate prediction on airline passenger flow plays an important role in sales policy for aviation enterprises. Based on the data of Sanya-Beijing route of a particular airline in 6 years, this paper uses the regression analysis, gray forecast method to analyze the passenger flow in 2016.The result shows the Grey forecasting method of airline passenger flow forecasting is more accurate than others, which sets a significantly guiding model for airlines sales policies.
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基金项目:2014年三亚市院地合作科技项目（2014YD52）
引用文本：
刘夏,李苑辉,陈磊,陈焕东,陈明锐.基于灰色预测模型的航线客流量预测.计算机系统应用,2017,26(7):221-226
LIU Xia,LI Yuan-Hui,CHEN Lei,CHEN Huan-Dong,CHEN Ming-Rui.Prediction for Air Route Passenger Flow Based on Grey Prediction Model.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2017,26(7):221-226
刘夏,李苑辉,陈磊,陈焕东,陈明锐.基于灰色预测模型的航线客流量预测.计算机系统应用,2017,26(7):221-226
LIU Xia,LI Yuan-Hui,CHEN Lei,CHEN Huan-Dong,CHEN Ming-Rui.Prediction for Air Route Passenger Flow Based on Grey Prediction Model.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2017,26(7):221-226
