基于动态指标网和大语言模型的热点事件预警
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国家自然科学基金 (U24B20174)


Hot Event Early Warning Based on Dynamic Indicator Network and Large Language Model
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    摘要:

    热点事件是引发公众高度关注、广泛讨论并对社会、经济或组织产生显著影响的事件, 提前预警热点事件可有效降低风险损失. 热点事件预警是一个涉及多方、多因素、多关系的复杂场景分析问题, 传统的单一“指标-征候”关联评估体系存在指标体系丰富度低、推理过程固化等问题, 在复杂场景下易遗漏重要征候线索, 导致热点事件预警不及时. 为了解决上述问题, 本文提出一种基于动态指标网和大语言模型的热点事件预警算法. 首先, 从多群体视角构建分层分类的指标网, 建立不同群体指标体系间的耦合关系, 通过指标增强和强度分割将不同群体及群体内的指标进行分级增益, 提高征候发现和事件预警的效率. 然后, 设计了大小模型协同的热点事件预警方法, 通过大语言模型智能调度经典算法和业务数据两类模型, 并结合指标网完成热点事件预警, 预警结果通过提示工程进行自适应反馈, 生成新的指标和优化指标权重. 对比实验结果表明, 该方法可以完成复杂场景下的热点事件预警, 征候覆盖全面性和事件预警及时性得到提高, 证明了方法的有效性.

    Abstract:

    Hot events refer to events that attract intense public attention, trigger extensive discussions, and exert significant influence on society, the economy, or organizations. Early warning of such events can effectively reduce risk losses. Hot event early warning is an issue of complex scenario analysis involving multiple parties, factors, and relationships. Traditional single “indicator-symptom” correlation evaluation systems have problems such as low richness of indicator systems and rigid reasoning processes, thereby easily causing the omission of important symptom clues in complex scenarios and untimely early warnings of hot events. To this end, this study proposes a hot event early warning algorithm based on the dynamic indicator network and large language model. First, a hierarchical and classified indicator network is constructed from a multi-group perspective, with the coupling relationships between indicator systems of different groups established. By conducting indicator enhancement and intensity segmentation, indicators across and within different groups are graded and augmented to improve the efficiency of symptom discovery and event early warning. Second, a hot event early warning method with collaboration between large and small models is designed. LLM is adopted to intelligently schedule two types of models, including classic algorithms and business data models, and the indicator network is combined to complete hot event early warning. The early warning results are adaptively fed back through prompt engineering to generate new indicators and optimize indicator weights. Comparative experimental results show that this method can complete hot event early warning in complex scenarios, and the comprehensiveness of symptom coverage and the timeliness of event early warning are improved, thus verifying the effectiveness of the method.

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廖泓舟,王权,戴礼灿,潘磊,代翔.基于动态指标网和大语言模型的热点事件预警.计算机系统应用,2026,35(8):130-139

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-09
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-22
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