Causal Mamba: 面向时变反事实结果预测的端到端深度学习框架
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云南省重大科技专项 (202002AE090010)


Causal Mamba: End-to-end Deep Learning Framework for Time-varying Counterfactual Outcomes Prediction
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    摘要:

    基于观测数据预测随时间推移变化的反事实结果在诸多领域具有重要意义. 当前最优方法在长序列场景下面临预测精度低与计算效率低的双重挑战, 且现有平衡策略在偏差与误差权衡方面存在明显不足. 为此, 本文提出一种基于Mamba的新型端到端深度学习框架Causal Mamba, 用于预测随时间推移变化的反事实结果, 该框架融合了Treatment-Covariate-Outcome并行Mamba模块 (TCO-TriMamba块) 与对抗-重建多任务平衡策略. TCO-TriMamba块能够高效地从历史信息中筛选关键部分进行选择性关注. 对抗-重建多任务平衡策略通过优化多个任务与该模块协同作用, 实现对时变混杂因素的有效调整, 同时保障反事实预测任务的精度. 实验结果表明, Causal Mamba在多步反事实预测任务上优于现有基准模型, 尤其在长序列下有着更高的预测精度与更短的运行时间.

    Abstract:

    Predicting time-varying counterfactual outcomes based on observational data is significant in various fields. However, current state-of-the-art methods face dual challenges of low prediction accuracy and low computational efficiency in long sequence scenarios, and existing balancing strategies have obvious limitations in balancing bias and error. To this end, this study proposes Causal Mamba, a novel end-to-end deep learning framework based on Mamba for predicting time-varying counterfactual outcomes. The framework integrates a Treatment-Covariate-Outcome parallel Mamba module (TCO-TriMamba block) and an adversarial-reconstruction multi-task balancing strategy. The TCO-TriMamba block can efficiently identify and focus on key components from historical information. By optimizing multiple tasks in coordination with this module, the adversarial-reconstruction multi-task balancing strategy effectively adjusts to time-varying confounders while ensuring the accuracy of counterfactual prediction tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that Causal Mamba outperforms existing benchmark models in multi-step counterfactual prediction tasks, yielding significantly higher prediction accuracy and shorter running time especially in long sequence scenarios.

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黄林耀,刘向阳. Causal Mamba: 面向时变反事实结果预测的端到端深度学习框架.计算机系统应用,2026,35(8):185-192

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-25
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-15
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