MTSCNet: 基于多尺度趋势-季节协同建模和通道注意力机制的长期时间序列预测
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MTSCNet: Long-term Time Series Forecasting Based on Multi-scale Trend-seasonal Collaborative Modeling and Channel Attention Mechanism
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    摘要:

    MTSCNet首先通过多尺度平均下采样将长期时间序列数据分为不同的尺度, 解耦了复杂的时序模式; 其次, 针对时间序列数据具有非平稳性和信号纠缠的问题, 通过频域选择性分解得到季节项与趋势项, 并在各尺度上分别建模. 季节项通过自底向上的MLP混合, 将高频的季节细节逐级压缩并汇聚到低频, 从而提取稳定的高频季节模式并抑制噪声; 趋势项通过自顶向下的Chebyshev-KAN混合, 将低频的全局趋势逐级传播到高频并增强非线性表达, 同时引入归一化时间索引作为显式时间自变量, 使模型更准确刻画趋势随时间演化并提升长预测外推能力. 在季节与趋势项重组后的混合表示上引入SE-attention通道注意力机制, 对通道特征进行自适应重标定, 以突出关键变量并抑制噪声干扰. 在6个真实世界时间序列数据集上的大量实验结果表明, MTSCNet达到了领先性能.

    Abstract:

    MTSCNet first decomposes long-term time series data into multiple scales through multi-scale average downsampling, thus disentangling complex temporal patterns. Subsequently, to address the non-stationarity and signal entanglement of time series data, a frequency-domain selective decomposition method is employed to obtain seasonal and trend components, which are modeled separately at each scale. The seasonal component is processed through bottom-up MLP mixing, progressively compressing high-frequency seasonal details and aggregating them into lower frequencies, thus extracting stable high-frequency seasonal patterns and suppressing noise. The trend component is processed through top-down Chebyshev-KAN mixing, progressively propagating low-frequency global trends to higher frequencies and enhancing nonlinear representations. Meanwhile, normalized time indices are introduced as explicit independent temporal variables, enabling the model to more accurately characterize trend evolution over time and improve long-term forecasting and extrapolation capabilities. After recombining the seasonal and trend components, an SE-attention channel mechanism is introduced into the hybrid representation, performing adaptive recalibration of channel features to highlight key variables and suppress noise interference. Extensive experimental results on six real-world time series datasets demonstrate that MTSCNet achieves state-of-the-art performance.

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张恺翔,杨欢. MTSCNet: 基于多尺度趋势-季节协同建模和通道注意力机制的长期时间序列预测.计算机系统应用,,():1-13

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-16
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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