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计算机系统应用英文版:2026,35(1):164-177
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基于活动案例间行为信息编码的时间预测
(1.安徽理工大学 数学与大数据学院, 淮南 232001;2.安徽理工大学 安徽省煤矿安全大数据分析与预警技术工程实验室, 淮南 232001)
Time Prediction Based on Inter-case Behavioral Information Encoding of Activities
(1.School of Mathematics and Big Data, Anhui University of Science & Technology, Huainan 232001, China;2.Anhui Province Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Early Warning Technology of Coal Mine Safety, Anhui University of Science & Technology, Huainan 232001, China)
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Received:May 27, 2025    Revised:June 24, 2025
中文摘要: 预测性过程监控(predictive process monitoring, PPM)技术通过分析已有的事件日志对正在运行的业务流程中的某些关键指标进行预测. 目前的预测性过程监控方法在特征提取方面通常预设案例仅受自身属性的影响或仅通过提取资源案例间行为属性进行编码, 通常未涉及活动视角下的案例间行为信息. 本文提出了一种捕获活动案例间行为信息的方法IABC (inter-activity behaviour of case) , 该方法设计了一个三维特征构建框架涵盖时间窗口、活动粒度、行为状态这3大维度, 共构造36种活动案例间行为特征. 同时, 本文提出了两项关键算法: 影响力分布算法用于挖掘活动间的正/负影响传播; 批次行为检测算法用于识别潜在的批量操作行为. 最后在3个公开可用的事件日志上评估IABC方法的有效性, 结果表明集成了IABC方法的时间预测模型性能优于未使用该方法的基线模型和采用了资源案例间特征的模型.
Abstract:Predictive process monitoring (PPM) techniques utilize existing event logs to predict certain key metrics in running business processes. In terms of feature extraction, current PPM methods presuppose that cases are solely influenced by their attributes or exclusively encoded by extracting resource-level inter-case behavioral attributes. These methods typically overlook inter-case behavioral information from the activity perspective. This study proposes a new method to capture the inter-activity behaviour of cases (IABC), which involves a feature construction framework covering three dimensions: time window, activity granularity, and behaviour state. It constructs a total of 36 types of inter-activity behavioral features. Concurrently, this study proposes two novel algorithms: the influence distribution algorithm for mining positive/negative influence propagation among activities, and the batch behaviour detection algorithm for identifying potential batch operations. The effectiveness of the IABC method is evaluated on three publicly available event logs. The results demonstrate that the temporal prediction model integrating the IABC method outperforms both the baseline model, which does not use the method, and the model that employs resource-level inter-case features.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金(61572035); 安徽省重点研究与开发计划(2022a05020005); 安徽省自然科学基金(2308085US11)
引用文本:
张振涛,方贤文.基于活动案例间行为信息编码的时间预测.计算机系统应用,2026,35(1):164-177
ZHANG Zhen-Tao,FANG Xian-Wen.Time Prediction Based on Inter-case Behavioral Information Encoding of Activities.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2026,35(1):164-177