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Received:July 15, 2025 Revised:August 22, 2025
Received:July 15, 2025 Revised:August 22, 2025
中文摘要: 临近降水预报是一项重要的时空序列预测任务, 在农业、交通等诸多气象相关领域有广泛应用. 基于深度学习的雷达回波外推是目前常用的临近预报方法, 然而现有方法在捕捉雷达回波的复杂时空模式时存在局限. 随着时间推移这些方法的性能显著下降, 难以准确预测降水的时空演变. 本文提出一种融合全局模式和局部变化的GloCal-Net模型. 该模型基于混合Mamba-Transformer专家的U-Net架构, 旨在通过优化特征提取机制, 增强对雷达回波序列复杂模式的捕捉能力. 为验证所提出的模型, 在九江真实雷达数据集上进行了对比实验和消融实验. 与主流深度学习模型相比, 本文提出的模型在2 h外推任务中, Heidke技能得分表现相当, 关键成功指数提升了4.19%, 分别达到0.36和0.29; 学习感知图像块相似性指标降低了3.70%, 降至0.31; 结构相似性指标提高了2.07%, 达到72.37%. 这些实验结果表明, GloCal-Net在多个关键性能指标上均有所改善, 同时验证了各部分的有效性.
Abstract:Precipitation nowcasting, a critical spatiotemporal sequence prediction task, has significant applications in meteorological domains such as agriculture and transportation. While radar echo extrapolation based on deep learning is a commonly used nowcasting method, existing methods have limitations in capturing the complex spatiotemporal patterns of radar echoes. The performance of these methods degrades significantly over time, making it difficult to accurately predict the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation. This study proposes GloCal-Net, a model that integrates global modes and local variations. The model is based on a U-Net architecture with hybrid Mamba-Transformer experts, designed to enhance the ability to capture complex patterns in radar echo sequences by optimizing the feature extraction mechanism. To validate the proposed model, comparative and ablation experiments are conducted on a real radar dataset from Jiujiang. Compared with mainstream deep learning models, in the 2-hour extrapolation task, the proposed model achieves a comparable Heidke skill score and a 4.19% higher critical success index, reaching 0.36 and 0.29 respectively. The learned perceptual image patch similarity decreases by 3.70%, reaching 0.31. The structural similarity increases by 2.07%, reaching 72.37%. These experimental results show that GloCal-Net improves several key performance indicators and simultaneously verifies the effectiveness of each component.
keywords: precipitation nowcasting deep learning global pattern local variation radar echo extrapolation
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原辰杰,杨超.基于GloCal-Net的雷达临近降水预报网络.计算机系统应用,2026,35(2):65-75
YUAN Chen-Jie,YANG Chao.Radar-based Precipitation Nowcasting Network with GloCal-Net.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2026,35(2):65-75
原辰杰,杨超.基于GloCal-Net的雷达临近降水预报网络.计算机系统应用,2026,35(2):65-75
YUAN Chen-Jie,YANG Chao.Radar-based Precipitation Nowcasting Network with GloCal-Net.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2026,35(2):65-75

