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Received:February 06, 2026 Revised:February 27, 2026
Received:February 06, 2026 Revised:February 27, 2026
中文摘要: 为提高短期电力负荷预测精度, 提出一种融合多尺度特征的短期电力负荷预测模型. 首先, 采用皮尔逊相关系数和最大信息系数对电力负荷数据进行特征优选后, 借助动态频谱滤波模块去除数据高噪成分. 其次, 将数据输入多尺度时间卷积模块进行多尺度的时序提取. 再次, 通过变量维度的多头注意力机制和前馈神经网络, 挖掘数据间的相关性并进行特征编码. 最后, 构建线性层级融合模块, 与投影层分量同时并行处理已编码的特征, 二者加权组合实现数据特征深度融合的预测结果. 在数据集1上的实验结果表明, 本文模型在对比实验和消融实验均取得较好效果, MAE和RMSE较次优模型提升了5.2%和6.8%. 数据集2中对比实验结果显示, 本文模型各项指标均优于其他模型, MAPE和R2值达到0.467、0.949. 所提模型有助于提高短期电力负荷预测精度, 并具有良好的泛化能力.
中文关键词: 短期电力负荷预测 iTransformer模型 多头注意力机制 多尺度时间卷积 多尺度特征融合
Abstract:To improve the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting, this study proposes a model for short-term power load forecasting using multi-scale features. First, feature selection is performed on the power load data using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the maximal information coefficient, followed by dynamic spectral filtering to remove high-noise components. Second, the data are fed into a multi-scale temporal convolution module for multi-scale temporal feature extraction. Third, correlations in the data are mined, and features are encoded using a variable-dimensional multi-head attention mechanism combined with feed-forward neural networks. Finally, a linear hierarchical fusion module is developed to process the encoded features in parallel with a projection layer. The weighted combination of these two components yields prediction results through the deep fusion of data features. Experimental results on Dataset 1 show that the proposed model achieves good results in both comparative and ablation experiments, outperforming the next-best model by 5.2% and 6.8% in MAE and RMSE, respectively. On Dataset 2, the proposed model surpasses baseline models across all evaluation metrics, achieving an MAPE of 0.467 and an R2 of 0.949. The proposed model enhances short-term power load forecasting accuracy and exhibits strong generalization capabilities.
keywords: short-term power load forecasting iTransformer model multi-head attention mechanism multi-scale temporal convolution multi-scale feature fusion
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基金项目:国网辽宁省电力有限公司科技项目(2024-02-20); 辽工程GPU资源支持项目(2026-01)
引用文本:
陈万志,詹美玉,林春洋.融合多尺度特征的短期电力负荷预测模型.计算机系统应用,,():1-11
CHEN Wan-Zhi,ZHAN Mei-Yu,LIN Chun-Yang.Short-term Power Load Forecasting Model Using Multi-scale Feature.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,,():1-11
陈万志,詹美玉,林春洋.融合多尺度特征的短期电力负荷预测模型.计算机系统应用,,():1-11
CHEN Wan-Zhi,ZHAN Mei-Yu,LIN Chun-Yang.Short-term Power Load Forecasting Model Using Multi-scale Feature.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,,():1-11

